The Test

Mobley or Green? How about neither?

Picture this. You’re sitting in class taking a scantron test. Let’s say the test date is July 29th, 2021. You’ve got a choice between A, B, C, or D. A appears to be the obvious answer, but you somehow find yourself selecting between B and C.

B is Evan Mobley. He answers a lot of the questions by way of size, mobility, and versatility. As the highest rated big man on likely 100% of draft boards, the former USC Trojan averaged 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game, drawing comparisons to NBA Hall of Famer Chris Bosh, whom the Rockets unsuccessfully tried to recruit multiple times during his playing career.

But what if B is the wrong answer? Past NBA drafts are riddled with big men selections at number 2 overall and it is truly hit or miss. Newly hired Rockets director of scouting, Chris Wallace, is partially responsible for one such miss in Hasheem Thabeet, the second pick of the 2009 NBA Draft by the Memphis Grizzlies.

C appears to be staring you right in the face in Jalen Green, a highly athletic shooter who can score at every level from the paint to the three-point line. He took the unconventional route of playing his one year post high school as a member of the G League, but of course, that just means he was exposed to more NBA caliber competition. Green averaged 17.9 points including 36.5% from three and 82.9% from the free-throw line so it is safe to say, he plans on getting buckets at the next level. It is a tantalizing prospect to pair him with current Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. and consider your guard lineup set for next year. The perfect mix of young players and veterans to learn from. Doesn’t the saying go, if you don’t know the answer just pick C and move on?

But what if C is the wrong answer? To me, I worry about projecting too much when you are at the top of the draft. It doesn’t make sense to make a selection today that doesn’t answer today’s question. I can appreciate Toronto taking a flyer on the potential of Bruno Caboclo with the 20th pick, but I shudder at selecting a Markelle Fultz at #1 overall. Today’s question for Jalen Green advocates is what else can he do besides score?

D is all of the above (Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs with the presumably highest floor, lowest ceiling of the top picks), but setting him aside for now, what direction should the Rockets go in? It feels as if what the Rockets do determines the entire lottery selection order!

I advocate that the Rockets go with the obvious answer choice A. They should be doing everything in their power to trade up to the first pick of the NBA draft and select Cade Cunningham. For every question that Mobley and Green pose, Cunningham answers. The 6’8” 220 lb. guard and Arlington, TX native displayed everything you could ask for in an incoming rookie with a pro style game and an NBA ready build. The high-level stats speak for themselves (20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 40.0% from three) but it was his leadership skills and durability during his time at Oklahoma State that were just as impressive.

Cade Cunningham is the same three level scorer (paint, midrange, three) as Green but he displayed it over a wider sample size (27 games including two post season games). His assist numbers (already higher than Green’s 2.8 average) would be higher if his teammates shot better than 31% from three last year. He has the accolades: Big 12 Player of the Year (4th ever freshman to win it), unanimous Big 12 Freshman of the Year, and All-Big 12 First Team. Plus he weighs in at 10 lbs. more than Mobley and 40 lbs. more than Green so his first professional year can be more focused on improving his game and chemistry with teammates as opposed to the weight room. What should be most intriguing is that he does not duplicate the skillset of anyone currently on the Rocket’s roster as his size allows him to match up defensively one through three. That’s offensive and defensive versatility folks! Though he needs improvement in his rotations and closeouts, he showed a high defensive IQ both on the ball and in the post.

Without giving up prime picks, the Rockets have the assets to entice Detroit for the number one pick. The Pistons have already used a prime lottery pick on lead guard Killian Hayes last season and with no definitive route to the playoffs next season, they would welcome reacquiring their future first round pick from the Rockets to unlock other trade options. The Rockets own Detroit’s first round pick next year but the protections on the pick, by rule, make it extremely difficult for the Pistons to trade future picks until the owed pick conveys.